The lithium battery industry is generally getting better.
In the first half of 2026, the domestic lithium battery negative electrode material industry delivered a performance far exceeding market expectations.
The latest industry data shows that the total production of graphite negative electrodes in China from January to July increased by over 52% year-on-year, and the total shipment volume increased by 64% year-on-year. The annual shipment volume is expected to exceed 3 million tons.
The shipment growth rate of high-end fast charging negative electrode products with 4C and above has far exceeded the industry average. The order schedule of downstream leading battery companies has generally extended to the end of the third quarter, and some core categories have even experienced a tight supply situation of "waiting for delivery".
The penetration rate of silicon-based negative electrodes will increase from 10% to 25%, and high-end fast charging products are in short supply, with industry orders generally saturated.
The negative track, once labeled as' overcapacity ', is now undergoing a wave of high-end upgrading, completely reshaping the supply-demand pattern.
Demand explosion: Fast charging becomes the industry's growth engine
The surge in demand for high-end fast charging negative electrodes in this round is not an accidental short-term market trend, but an inevitable result of downstream demand resonance in multiple fields.
On the one hand, the trend of fast charging in the new energy vehicle market is irreversible. Among the mainstream models newly launched in 2026, the proportion of models supporting the 800V high-voltage platform has exceeded 60%, and the corresponding penetration rate of 4C and above fast charging batteries has rapidly increased, directly driving the demand for high-end fast charging negative electrodes to explode.
On the other hand, the structural demand of the energy storage market is also continuously being released. Long cycle, high rate energy storage batteries have higher requirements for the compaction density and rate performance of negative electrode materials. Traditional ordinary graphite products can no longer meet the technical standards of the new generation of energy storage batteries.
From the perspective of downstream order structure, the year-on-year growth rate of fast charging negative electrode procurement by leading power battery companies has generally exceeded 80%, and some leading battery factories have even raised their procurement targets for fast charging negative electrodes twice in 2026.
Industry research data shows that the market share of domestic fast charging negative electrodes will increase from 32% in 2025 to over 50% in 2026, and the market size of high-end fast charging products will exceed 30 billion yuan throughout the year, becoming the core engine driving the growth of the negative electrode industry.
In sharp contrast, the demand growth rate for low-end ordinary power negative electrode products has only remained at around 20%, and some non compliant low value-added production capacity has experienced insufficient operating rates, further exacerbating the differentiation of industry demand structure.
Supply side: The release of high-end production capacity falls far short of expectations
While demand is rapidly increasing, the supply side of high-end fast charging negative electrodes is facing multiple rigid constraints, which directly leads to the current market situation of supply shortage.
Unlike ordinary negative electrode products, high-end fast charging negative electrodes have extremely high thresholds for raw material selection, process control, and post-treatment technology: not only do high-purity low sulfur needle coke need to be used as raw materials, but special surface modification and pore control processes are also required to achieve the performance requirements of rapid ion conduction. It takes at least 18 months from the construction of new production capacity to stable mass production, and it is not a quick expansion in the short term.
At the same time, the core process of negative electrode production, graphitization, is still strictly constrained by energy consumption indicators and power supply.
Less than 30% of the newly added graphitization production capacity in China in 2026 can stably produce fast charging products, and a large amount of newly released capacity can only produce ordinary power or energy storage negative electrodes, which cannot meet the performance requirements of high-end products.
This has resulted in a structural contradiction where the overall production capacity of the industry appears to be sufficient, but effective high-end production capacity is actually scarce.
According to industry associations' calculations, the current effective production capacity of 4C and above fast charging negative electrodes that comply with regulations in China is less than 800000 tons, far below the market demand of over 1 million tons for the whole year. The supply-demand gap exceeds 200000 tons, which is also the core reason for the current saturation of orders among top enterprises.
Leading enterprises widen the competitive gap
The reversal of supply and demand patterns has directly driven the restoration of profitability in the negative electrode industry.
Since the second quarter of 2026, the market price of high-end fast charging negative electrodes has increased by 15% -20% compared to the beginning of the year, and some customized ultra-high rate products have even increased by more than 30%. However, the production costs of top integrated enterprises have not increased significantly, and the gross profit margin of products has rebounded from less than 15% in the same period last year to over 25%. The gross profit margin of some leading enterprises' fast charging products has even exceeded 30%, completely reversing the previous situation of low price competition in the industry.
During this process, the competitive advantage of top enterprises is further amplified.
From the current perspective, the supply shortage of high-end fast charging negative electrodes is expected to continue at least until the first half of 2027. The industry has completely bid farewell to the past simple capacity competition and turned to comprehensive ability competition in technology, process, and supply chain.
Enterprises that can continue to launch high rate, long cycle, low-cost fast charging products in the future will continue to seize market share and enjoy the performance growth brought by high-end dividends in this round of industry upgrading.
